Brief/ Iran’s Retaliatory Attack on Israel Puts the Middle East on the Brink by Riccardo Alcaro

While the full consequences of Iran’s attacks against Israel are still unfolding, in this JOINT Brief, Riccardo Alcaro (JOINT Project Coordinator & Head of Research, Istituto Affari Internazionali) draws some preliminary reflections on whether Iran has gained something or the attack has been strategic setback.

Israel claims to have intercepted the vast majority of the drones and missiles, suggesting limitations in Iran’s military prowess. The fact that the attack was deliberately limited and communicated well in advance indicates that Iran is wary of a war it cannot sustain. However, the attack has also provided some potential gains for Iran. It has demonstrated Iran’s military capabilities, and its prestige in the regional public opinion may have been bolstered by the audacity of attacking Israel. The attack has also exposed the hypocrisy of the West, which has justly condemned the attack but has never warned, let alone condemned, Israel for triggering the escalatory spiral.