Tackling the Constraints on EU Foreign Policy towards Ukraine: From Strategic Denial to Geopolitical Awakening KRISTI RAIK, STEVEN BLOCKMANS, ASSEM DANDASHLY, GERGANA NOUTCHEVA, ANNA OSYPCHUK, ANTON SUSLOV

To what extent has the interplay of power competition with intra-EU divisions and regional fragmentation hampered EU efforts at conflict resolution in Eastern Europe, especially in Ukraine? The EU’s tightening competition with Russia is not just about Ukraine but two different visions of the European political, economic and security order. The EU, however, was largely in denial of the geopolitical competition with Moscow until 24 February 2022. This JOINT report explores how the EU pursued its goals and provides policy recommendations for the EU to move further in this geopolitical competition.

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Stalled by Division: EU Internal Contestation over the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict SINEM AKGÜL-AÇIKMEŞE, KRISTINA KAUSCH, SOLI ÖZEL and EDUARD SOLER I LECHA

The EU’s capacity to act in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has not met expectations due to the interplay of intra-EU divisions, Middle Eastern fragmentation, and geopolitical rivalries. These factors hamper a more joined-up and consequently effective EU foreign and security policy towards the region. The EU should optimise internal communication, consensus-building processes, leverage European aid and work with international partners. It should also take advantage of the momentum in regional rapprochements by re-packaging the Palestinian issue as an integral element of a larger regional security bargain.

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Syria: A Multifaceted and Challenging Crisis for EU Foreign and Security Policy AGNÈS LEVALLOIS, CAN KASAPOĞLU, ÖZLEM TÜR and GALIP DALAY

An interplay of multi-level domestic and regional fragmentation and multipolar competition has constrained the ability of the EU and its member states to pursue coherent and effective conflict resolution efforts in Syria. Since the 2011 uprising, Syria has witnessed a deep state-level fragmentation, with opposition factions and the regime controlling different parts of the country. While avoiding normalisation with Assad, the EU should still engage with local and external actors to mitigate the proxy war and safeguard humanitarian corridors.

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Resolving Libya’s Legitimacy Crisis: 2023 Elections as a Pathway for Peace and Democratisation? CYNTHIA HAPPI

Libya is in dire need of a legitimate administration to take it a step away from political stagnation and division. A legal framework and a roadmap associated with a timetable for Libya’s elections in 2023 is therefore paramount. However, holding elections without an implementable constitutional basis and without unifying key state institutions will only result in further stalemate and divisions. This JOINT Brief argues that the African Union should co-lead the UN mediation efforts while the EU should support the definition and attainment of all political, legal and security requirements indispensable to the success of Libya’s eventual stabilisation.

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